SafeRock’s FAST beats Top Energy Analysts

Situation

A top-rated US energy analyst firm wanted to improve production forecast accuracy for public E&P operators in Lower 48. The challenge was to beat engineering experts using the same data for basins in Eagle Ford, Permian, and Bakken.

Approach

• Using public data, we built a unique process using proprietary algorithms that takes well-level monthly oil and gas production data from E&P operators and builds unique models for each well.

• The ARPS model was combined with SafeRock’s algorithms and compared against human engineer-estimated EUR for 1,200+ wells. The system proved so accurate it was subsequently expanded to forecast production for 100,000+ wells.

Results

• The new system was more accurate than experts 74% of the time.

• This was dramatically faster by a factor of x100 for production forecasts for oil and gas and EUR.